Adapting to the effects of Global Warming

Scientific evidence shows that whatever we do now, significant climate change is unavoidable for at least the next 40-50 years. Lag times in key natural systems like the oceans will ensure that warming continues for some decades and sea levels may continue rising for centuries due to the greenhouse gases we have already released. Work to reduce carbon emissions is about trying to head off worse to come, but we must also begin adapting to the inevitable climate change we are too late to prevent.

What weather can we expect?

Predictions of our future climate, its likely impacts and what we can do about it, have been developed using the latest global climate model from the British Meteorological Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, the key science working group on climate change. The predictions are known as UKCIP02 scenarios and full details, maps and advice are available from www.ukcip.org.uk , together with a range of publications and tools to help businesses, organisations and individuals prepare for a new climate.

In very general terms though, we should be planning for:

• Warmer, wetter winters
• Hotter, drier summers
• More extreme weather events e.g. storms, droughts, floods

We face two challenges: the creeping changes in average weather, and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather. Learn more about the impacts, get ideas on how we can manage them and read the experiences of other residents of Whittington and Fisherwick who are trying to make some simple step by step changes to their lives and businesses:

Floods: water, water everywhere..?

April 2007 saw the hottest every April on record, shortly to be followed by the wettest ever June! In the Midlands we had a couple of particularly heavy downpours, the first bringing the average rainfall for the month in one day, the second brought the average month’s rainfall in 2 hours. Flood defences in Tamworth, built to withstand a 1-in-100 year flood, were overtopped, and then came July. This time, a month’s worth of rain fell in less than an hour causing the worst flooding in modern history, leaving many without power or water supplies, and at the time of writing this, the water is still rising. What can we do to plan for this type of weather? And whilst we can’t stop the rain, is there anything we can do to prevent flooding?

The short answer is yes, there is a lot we can do. There are two major types of flooding in the Midlands; rivers and drainage systems. To understand the risk from rivers check out the Environment Agency’s website (www.environment-agency.gov.uk) for flood risk maps and details of their flood warning service. The Environment Agency is now building build defences with an additional 20% capacity to help insure our river defences stand up to the predictions for climate change, although flood defences can only do so much, it is better to avoid building in the flood plain in the first place.

With regard to drainage systems, this can happen in urban areas where rain comes down faster than it can drain away, and results in roads and buildings being flooded briefly. It also happens where water runs into the drains too fast, flowing off hard surfaces such as tarmac or roves and exceeds the capacity of the drain. When this happens it gets diverted into storm overflow drains releasing pollutants and sewage which can either flow back into urban areas causing misery and health problems for residents, or into rivers where it devastates wildlife.

The key thing here is the rate at which water enters the drainage system, anything we can do to slow this down will help prevent flooding. This is a technique known as Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (or SuDs for short) and there is lots of advice for this on the EA’s website, including for larger developments. A very simple example of this is not paving over your front lawn, as water can soak directly into the ground rather than being diverted into drains. Where you can also ‘harvest’ the rain, that is capture and reuse it e.g. water butts, the benefits are even greater. You are not only helping to reduce floods, but reducing carbon emissions as water companies need to store, treat and pump less water. On top of this, it also helps to reduce demand for water at times when demand is highest. Water used for gardening purposes accounts on average for 9% of the total household demand, but this can rise to up to 50% during hot summers!

Water – when less is more, how do we manage?

Saving water helps to secure our supply and reduces carbon emissions. Although we are predicted to receive the same amount of water in the future, climate change means that how and when we receive it will change. We are more likely to see sudden downpours and in the winter. In the summer, we are predicted that there will be longer periods without any rain, but when it does come, as for the winter it will be in sudden downpours which are likely to cause flash flooding. This country and particularly the midlands is able to manage with long dry summers as we have a good supply of groundwater which fills up during the winter and helps us supplement our supply when reservoir levels drop. We start to have problems when we experience dry winters followed by dry summers as in 1995/6. However, when rain falls very quickly it runs off the land to rivers and drains before it has chance to soak into the ground. If we want to be sure of a reliable water supply in the future we need to start thinking about how we use water, and being efficient at every opportunity.

The good news is that there is plenty of opportunity and advice on what we can do. Water meters on average reduce households water use by 15%, just by residents being more aware of how they use water. It cost nothing to have a meter installed, except for the call to the water company and will save most families money. If considering doing this then it is worth thinking about where the meter is placed, the water company is responsible for the supply infrastructure up to the meter so if it is just inside your house, rather than at the end of your drive, any leaks that occur up to that point will be fixed at the water company’s expense.

Other easy things you can do are:

1. install water efficient appliances: such as showers and taps;
2. choose water & energy efficient washing machines; a modern dishwasher uses less water than washing up by hand – providing you don’t rinse the plates first.
3. The biggest use in the house is the toilet, so if you don’t have a modern, low, dual flush toilet, then ask your water company for a free ‘hippo’, a small device which fits inside the tank to reduce the amount of water with each flush.
4. keep a jug of water in the fridge during hot weather, rather than running the tap each time until it gets really cold
5. fix those leaky taps, over a day you will be surprised how much you save

For lots of other tips including how to fit a water butt, which washing machines and dishwashers are the best, and low water gardening visit www.waterwise.org.uk

Beat the heat…

Warmer weather in this country sounds like a good thing, and there are some very good reasons for that. Warmer winters in particular will save many lives and may help bring a number of families out of fuel poverty, energy price rises aside. There is likely to be more tourism and general outdoor activity which may help businesses and obesity rates, and the agricultural growing season has increased by a month. However, to ensure we get the most out of a new climate, we need to prepare for the benefits and the risks that it might bring.

One of the hardest things to deal with will be the extremes of temperatures. The heatwave of 2003 killed over 20,000 people across Europe, and more people died in the West Midlands than anywhere else in the UK. By 2050, this weather could be happening every other year, what we see as extreme at the moment will become the average by the middle of this century. Not all impacts will be as extreme but will have significant cost socially and economically. For example, last year, roads melted in Worcestershire causing chaos for traffic, and schools in Oxford had to close which meant many parents were unable to work at short notice. So what options do people have to adapt to such changes?

There is lots of good advice on the UKCIP website www.ukcip.org.uk giving specific advice on different sectors and business types to individuals and local authorities etc. When it comes to dealing with the heat from a health perspective, have a look at the NHS website which has a heat wave action plan to help people avoid the problems that happened in 2003, with simple tips to protect the elderly and at risk groups www.dh.gov.uk/en/News/DH_4135379